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Good Morning. The CDC is announcing its proposed vaccine priorities, and we are providing a schedule of when you can expect one.
Who goes first
A panel of scientific advisors yesterday released its first guidelines on who should receive the first coronavirus vaccines – recommendations that will influence the policies of states across the country.
The obvious question that many people ask is: When can I expect a vaccination? Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty, it is possible to establish a rough expected schedule. I’ve done this below with the help of public health experts and colleagues studying the virus.
December: Healthcare workers and nursing home residents are likely to be the first to receive the vaccine, as recommended by the panel.
By the end of this year, Americans could have up to 40 million doses from a combination of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines. That would be enough to vaccinate the three million people who live in long-term care facilities, as well as most of the country’s 21 million health care workers.
January: Note that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require a second dose a few weeks later to be effective. So an initial batch of 40 million doses would be enough to vaccinate only 20 million people.
Pfizer and Moderna are expected to ship approximately 70 million doses per month by early next year, Moncef Slaoui, a senior federal vaccines official, told the Washington Post yesterday. People will likely get the recordings in doctors’ offices, hospitals and pharmacies, as well as in specially set up clinics in some locations, says my colleague Katie Thomas.
February and March: The next priority groups are likely to be people over 65 years of age (and especially people over 75 years of age). People with medical conditions that put them at risk of death if infected; and critical workers such as those in education, nutrition, transportation and law enforcement.
An exception to this second wave of vaccine recipients may be people who have already had the virus and make them immune to it, at least for a period of time.
If other companies besides Pfizer and Moderna get approval for their vaccines, the total number of vaccines shipped monthly could reach 150 million by March, Slaoui said.
April, May and June: The most likely scenario is that even those who do not qualify as a priority – such as healthy, non-essential workers under 65 – will receive the vaccine from the spring. The vast majority of Americans could be vaccinated by early summer.
Once this happens, life will still not return to normal immediately, partly because the vaccines are not 100 percent effective. “There will still be risks to people,” Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me.
However, these risks will be small compared to today’s risks. Treatments continue to improve and lower the death rate for people who get the virus. Widespread vaccination will greatly reduce the spread and protect even people for whom a vaccine is ineffective. Rivers predicted that social gatherings would be back to normal and largely safe by summer.
All in all, spring isn’t that far away, which is another reason for people to make extra efforts over the next few months to avoid unnecessary risks – like eating out at restaurants and meeting friends around the house.
What other questions do you have about vaccines? Tell us here and we will answer some of them in an upcoming newsletter.
THE LATEST NEWS
The virus
One morning read: A 1,020-year-old mochi shop in Kyoto, Japan, weathered wars, epidemics, and natural disasters, offers a lesson in resilience.
From the opinion: Farhad Manjoo has a column and Thomas Friedman speaks to Biden.
Lived life: In the 1990s, conservation biologist Georgina Mace rewrote the global Red List, which describes which species are in trouble, warning that the world will have to restore its ecological balance or pay a heavy price. Dr. Mace died at the age of 67.
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ART AND IDEAS
The best albums of 2020
“Musicians are people too,” as Jon Pareles, one of the Times’ popular music critics, says, “so all of the things that affected the audience – the pandemic, protests, elections, the disappearance of concerts – clearly influenced the music which was published in 2020. “
This morning, The Times released its list of the best albums of the year, and you can see some of these big 2020 themes in it. The list includes entries that Taylor Swift and Charli XCX created at home during the quarantine. There was also very personal work by artists like Fiona Apple and Burna Boy, as well as albums that were introspective and political, like the latest from Run the Jewels.
A broader trend: the differences between genres are collapsing. “The lines between pop, pop-punk, auto-tuned R&B and hip-hop – those lines that felt really real in the 90s, 80s, and even the 2000s – don’t make sense when you’re 20 or younger.” Jon Caramanica, a popular music critic for The Times, says. “For younger artists, such limits and strict rules are not really a thing.”
Here you will find the best albums of 2020, as well as lists focusing on jazz and classical music.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to cook
The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were mobility and immobility. Today’s puzzle is up – or you can play online if you have a game subscription.
Here is today’s mini crossword and a clue: you have the Boston (three letter) accent.
Thank you for spending part of your morning with The Times. Until tomorrow. – David
PS Forbes has added Astead Herndon, a Times reporter who covers national politics, to its annual 30-under-30 list.
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