Guinea’s President Alpha Conde was ready to risk everything and seek a controversial third term.
Last year, the 82-year-old resisted massive protests to push through a new constitution in a referendum in March, which critics denounced as a conspiracy to circumvent a temporary limit on presidential mandates.
As tensions rose in the run-up to the October 18 elections, he closed Guinea’s borders and severely restricted internet and phone lines.
Days after the vote, Tanzania’s electoral commission declared Conde the winner with 59 percent of the vote against opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo with a little more than 33 percent.
The result has to be confirmed by the Constitutional Court, but its announcement sparked deadly unrest.
More than 20 people were killed when Diallo’s supporters clashed with security forces, according to the government, while the opposition brought the death toll closer to 30. Amnesty International, a global human rights watchdog, said videos and testimony showed security forces used live ammunition against opposition supporters.
Diallo, a former prime minister who lost to Conde in two previous elections, has been blamed for escalating tensions by demanding an early victory based on the results at polling stations.
A spokesman for Diallo’s party said it had evidence of fraud and would challenge the result in court. The lack of key international election observers means their efforts are likely to be unsuccessful.
When Conde came to power in the country’s first democratic elections since independence from France in 1958, Conde was seen as a fresh start for the West African country.
The newly elected president compared himself to the South African Nelson Mandela, who initiated changes after decades of authoritarian rule.
But while Mandela famously resigned after only one term as president, Conde, a former law professor, had other plans.
At a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi a year before the vote, he first expressed his desire to amend the constitution in order to extend his rule.
Putin, who recently amended the Russian constitution to run for the presidency again in 2024 – and possibly stay in power until 2036 – supported Conde through then-ambassador Alexander Bregadze, who said: “Constitutions are not a dogma, not a Bible or no Koran “that” as the popular Russian proverb says, you don’t change horses at a river crossing “.
According to analysts, Russia has a clear interest in Conde staying in power through the aluminum producer United Co Rusal, which gets about a third of its bauxite – the main component of aluminum – from Guinean mines.
Simandou, the world’s largest undeveloped iron ore deposit, is located in Guinea and is operated by a joint venture between the Guinean Societe Miniere de Boke and the Winning International Group in Singapore, which is supported by Chinese investors. Two other blocks belong to Rio Tinto and the Chinese Chinalco Holding.
Conde’s re-election will give investors some level of security, although allegations of election fraud and violence against civilians by security forces will seriously concern investors, Verisk Maplecroft’s Africa analyst Eric Humphery-Smith said in an email sent comment.
So far, most of the violence has been concentrated in the capital, Conakry. That could change, however, as the opposition continues to dispute the election results.
For Simandou partners, Conde’s win is the “green light” they need to move forward, said Humphery-Smith.
The country is likely to remain unstable in the coming weeks. Conde is under pressure from both the opposition, who are denying the vote, and the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution – a coalition of opposition political parties and civil society groups opposed to his third term.
While Diallo agreed to meet with a joint mediation mission from ECOWAS, the African Union and the United Nations, members of the pre-election movement refused to ask Conde to abandon his offer for the third term to meet with the mediators to show that they are still in protest mood.
It is too early to say whether they can bring together the tens of thousands who took to the streets ahead of the March referendum.
France, the former colonial power, is likely more concerned about events in neighboring Ivory Coast, where President Alassane Ouattara also has a third term in mind.
US Deputy Secretary for African Affairs, Tibor Nagy, who early on asked Conde to reconsider all plans for a third term, urged all actors to respect the vote.
Meanwhile, clashes between opposition supporters and security forces broke out in Conakry, the mining belt and the town of Kindia, with mutineers rattling their weapons in the days leading up to the vote.
Internet remains restricted and French telecom operator Orange says its international lines are down, further isolating protesters in Conakry from the outside world.
Despite Conde’s call for calm and a promise to “remain open to dialogue and work with all Guineans” during his third term, the Guineans are preparing for a time of political turmoil, instability and increased violence .
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