BANGKOK – There are certain constants in Thailand: the soggy monsoons, the opening of new shopping malls and the rumors that the Royal Thai Armed Forces are planning another coup.
For weeks, student-led protesters across Thailand have taken to the streets every few days demanding a new constitution with authority over the monarchy, an end to the persecution of the political opposition and the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. the retired general who led the last military coup in 2014.
Some previous anti-government movements in Thailand were silenced by gunfire. The last dozen were killed in 2010. Although the security forces did not forcibly suppress these peaceful demonstrations, it is unclear how long such reluctance will last. Nor is it certain how long the army will be willing to stay in the barracks and plot against Mr. Prayuth, who was once one of their own.
Whenever the generals launch a coup, the refrain is the same: Thailand needs a return to order, with no messy rallies or dissenting voices.
“I don’t see a coup as a bad thing,” said Sondhi Limthongkul, a well-known royalist. Last week, Mr. Sondhi publicly called for further military intervention to restore stability and protect the monarchy, and urged the military to quickly surrender power after the takeover so that the king could oversee the formation of a unity government.
For the demonstrators, the enduring power of the military in a country that markets itself as a modern democracy is as alarming as it is anachronistic.
The rallies highlighted the military’s continued influence in the country, its interference in politics through coups d’état, and the way it has benefited from a deeply unequal society and secured economic advantage through large business holdings. Most of all, the young demonstrators scramble about how conscription and other war traditions are used to create an orderly, obedient population that submits to the orders of the military.
Mr Prayuth, the prime minister, said Friday he could not determine whether “there will be a coup or not.” But he added, “Nobody wants to do it, nobody wants to stage one.”
Political analysts found that coup refusals have often become louder as planning has increased. In the past nine decades, the Thai military has attempted to overthrow elected governments about 30 times. At least a dozen of these coups were successful.
“The empire will fight back,” said Paul Chambers, author of the upcoming book “Camouflaged Khakistocracy: Civil-Military Relations in Thailand”. “The military and all interest groups that are threatened by the student protesters will not allow the end of hegemonic military capitalism.”
The Thai military is the largest landowner in the country along with the National Park holdings of the Forestry Department. It has created a kind of parallel state with its own internal security apparatus that has brought thousands of dissenters to forced meetings to adjust attitudes to its military bases. It appoints all 250 members of the Senate.
Military regulation – uniforms, hierarchies and indisputable discipline – has become a social expectation, from schools to parts of the civil service. The military has also benefited from defense budgets, which have increased by around 140 percent since 2006, the year of another coup.
The oversized influence of the Royal Thai Armed Forces contrasts with their diminished role on the battlefield. Despite a top brass that includes around 1,600 generals, the second highest per capita in the world, Thai soldiers have not fought on a large scale on home turf since World War II. Thailand is not exposed to serious external security threats and a defense alliance with the United States ensures safekeeping by the largest military in the world.
The Thai military has instead emerged as a guardian against internal discord, especially against the threat to the nation’s other powerful institution: the monarchy. The last two coups in 2014 and 2006 were justified as necessary to protect the palace, although the royal family, one of the richest in the world, can count on a number of laws to protect it from criticism.
For the first time since the abolition of absolute monarchy in 1932, King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun is now faced with sustained demands from protesters for his power to be curtailed. Since he inherited the throne in 2016, he has lived most of the time in Germany. Tax dollars finance his lavish lifestyle. The king is now back in Thailand attending public events in military uniform.
“The military is the only institution that can maintain the king’s power,” said Chambers. “And the monarchy legitimizes the military and blesses every coup.”
This symbiotic relationship between the military and the monarch was underscored in September when Apirat Kongsompong, the commander in chief of the Royal Thai Army, retired from the military and was immediately appointed deputy chamberlain of the palace’s Royal Household Bureau.
“The royal institution, the military and the people are inseparable,” Apirat said in a speech last year.
The current protest movement began earlier this year when students spoke out against regulated school rules, such as B. Nursing regulations and expectations that they prostrate themselves to their superiors.
The demonstrations also included urban, educated Thais who believed their political aspirations were thwarted when a new party called Future Forward was ordered to dissolve by the Constitutional Court in February. A group of decision-making rights said this was politically motivated. Future Forward had campaigned to cut the defense budget and end conscription. It finished third in last year’s elections, a surprisingly strong result for a political neophyte force.
“The real reason for conscription is that they need the staff to control society,” said Pongsakorn Rodchomphu, a leader in the progressive movement that replaced Future Forward when it broke up.
“We have to reform the military to be professional soldiers with no time for politics,” added Pongsakorn, a retired lieutenant general. “This kind of atmosphere in Thailand, in which we have to ask the Commander-in-Chief, not the politicians, for help, is not civilized, not modern.”
Bad treatment of military recruits hit the headlines in February when a sergeant opened fire in Thailand and killed nearly 30 people. One of his victims was his commanding officer, whom the soldier had accused of cheating on him through a real estate contract. After the mass shootings, stories flowed of military superiors pushing conscripts into shady business dealings or forcing them into deadly harassment rituals.
“My request is that recruits have dignity to be treated as human beings, not as slaves,” said Piyamit Klanarong, a political science student at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, during a protest last month.
The issue of conscription has also underscored the pay gap in Thailand, where rich young men can often buy themselves out of the two years of military service required. Thailand has one of the greatest wealth gaps among major economies.
While fighting insurrections in the poor north and deep south of the country, the army acquired lucrative development projects. It is heavily invested in banks and media. The military also operates hotels, housing developments, and golf courses. Sports arena management was exposed earlier this year when a group of coronavirus cases emerged from a boxing match in Bangkok that was held in violation of lockdown measures.
Both retired and active military officers serve on the boards of private companies and state-owned companies. The Air Force is involved in the development of Thai airports. So does the Navy, which is building a new airport near Bangkok.
“How would the Americans react if the US Navy owned a new international airport in a naval base with duty-free shops?” said Kanda Naknoi, a Thailand-born economist at the University of Connecticut. Ms. Kanda’s research shows that the military’s finances increase with coups.
In October General Narongpan Jittkaewtae took command as the new army chief and responded to the rumors of the coup.
“The chance of a coup is zero as long as there are no groups creating a situation or violent conflict,” he said. He did not state what would happen if such groups existed.
Muktita Suhartono contributed to the coverage.
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