“Immediately, I went to a Trump rally” In Democrat Majority Greenwich, Ct. “I wished to see one up shut for myself…and it was an eye-opening expertise”
100 Percent Fed – If there weren’t any polls, who do you think would win the election right now?
That is a serious question. Would it be the guy who has massive rallies every day, many of them spontaneous, or the guy who stays in his basement every day and barely draws crowds on the rare occasions where he gasps?
Joe Biden is up eight points on the national RCP average. It is no small matter. Yes, survey respondents got it wrong in 2016, but they tend to correct past mistakes. You have a good reputation.
But are they just biased? Conservative Twitter seems to think so. The “game,” many think, is to create a false narrative about Biden being high up and then correct the bias at the very end. Then the pollsters are judged after the last poll. If they were far away a month before the election, who should say they were wrong? Public opinion is changing.
But I’ve looked at the samples that have been used by literally hundreds of surveys and I don’t see any significant sample bias. I’m not at all sure that this will happen, and if Republicans are counting on it, they shouldn’t.
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But these rallies.
Here is a rally that was held in Beverly Hills, CA last week:
The enthusiasm gap is as big as the Grand Canyon.
Today I went to a Trump rally. I wanted to see you up close, and it was an experience that opened my eyes.
The rally had about three hundred cars. There were no celebrity speakers or other big draws. Just random people. There were truckers and bikers and even a man in a Bentley. Interestingly, more than fifty percent were women. I recognized a few I knew and was surprised they were on the Trump side of the fence. They told me that usually they have to keep their views close to the vest. Abort culture.
No one with any connection to the Trump campaign had anything to do with the organization of the event, it was all word of mouth. This is a phenomenon that is played across the country and that we have never seen in our political history.
The rally began in Greenwich, Connecticut, and went about twenty miles on I-95 and back. This is deep blue Connecticut, by the way. No Trump Yard Signs anywhere. And yes, we got the finger a few times, but the overwhelming response from others has been extremely supportive. Hundreds of cars honked their horns in agreement. Countless people excitedly waved from overpasses or intersections.
It was like someone had given them permission to publicly show their support for Trump without suffering any kind of backlash. It was a tangible joy to see so much Trump support in a place like Connecticut.
At the Trump rally in Greenwich CT today (of all things!) Pic.twitter.com/cy9KUtE1iO
– Scott C. Johnston (@ SJohnston60) October 25, 2020
That brings me to the whole idea of the “shy” Trump voter. This is a real thing, and it is what pollsters may be missing. It’s people who don’t speak to a pollster or, when they do, are reluctant to say they are voting for Trump.
The big question is how big is this effect. If there are two points, that may not be enough. If it’s five or more, Trump will likely win. (Remember, it is closer than eight points in the swing states.)
One more thing to consider: do you know a 2016 Trump voter who didn’t vote for him this time? Not me. In fact, most are more enthusiastic this time. That and there is no question that Trump will win with blacks and Hispanics. The question is how much?
Then who did he lose? Suburban women? I was surrounded by them today.
Literally no one, on the other hand, is into Joe Biden. I don’t think Jill Biden is excited about Joe Biden. Is the animus towards the other sufficient to make someone choose? Not impossible but you tell me when was the last time it happened.
Here’s a quick look at a rally by Joe Biden versus a rally by Trump:
One thing is certain: this choice will be a success or failure for pollsters. Everything – everything – what we see around us with our own eyes cuts against what they say. If they get this wrong, either through bias or procedural errors, the entire industry deserves to be thrown on the ashes.
Written by Scott Johnston and republished with his permission. Scott can be found on Twitter at @ SJohnston60