Due to the slow and incoherent adoption of vaccinations, the Covid-19 pandemic could last seven years if the spread continues at the current rate.
A dire calculation by Bloomberg shows that with two-dose vaccines it could take nearly a decade to achieve herd immunity. Earlier calculations by the White House Chief Medical Officer Dr. Anthony Fauci, said that 70 to 85 percent of the population need the vaccine to achieve herd immunity.
Currently, the US is well on its way to hitting that mark by 2022, but serious complications with distribution and shortages of vaccines in other countries are far from it.
According to Bloomberg, western and wealthier countries get 75% coverage, but others are way behind. Israel will have 75% coverage by spring. However, it could take Portugal four years to hit this mark, China seven years and Canada nearly ten years if the current distribution pace is reached.
The media admits that their calculations are based on current conditions and could adjust as the distribution lines improve. Canada, for example, has been struggling with delivery delays but has large backlogs on deliveries that could speed up its time span.
Bloomberg also noted that manufacturing center production is just beginning and only a third of countries are running vaccination campaigns.
The calculations are based on two doses for full vaccination. Johnson & Johnson launches a vaccine with a dose that can cut the time.
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